الأحد، 23 سبتمبر 2012

عرض من شركة سما جروب للطبعات الملونة

تعلن شركة سما جروب عن بيع جميع الطبعات اليزر الملون استعمل خارج بااسعار مغرية

وصيانة جميع الطبعات اليزرلالوان  ولاحبار واى نوع من انوع الطبعات الحديثة

وتعبة جميع الكرتج الخاص بطبعات باسعار خاصة جدااا سعر  الحبر لى الطبعات الدل ليزر الملون - ٣٢٠ جنية مصرى

سعر اتش بى - ٢٦٠ جنية مصرى  سعر السمسونج- ٤٥٠ جنية فقط اسعار لا توجد عند احد هذا العرض خالص لى شركة سما

العنون القاهرة اول فيصيل شركة سما 

تلفون: ٠١١١٨٢٧٢٨ وقت العمل من الساعة ١٠ صبحا حتى الساعة ١٢ مساء

تحياتى المهندس: سعيد



Résuméabuiyad

الجمعة، 21 سبتمبر 2012

طبعات ليزر الوان للبيع

بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم


dell laser 1815dn




بسعر 1650 جنية فقط



للبيع طبعا ليزر الوان استعمال خارج موديل 5100



  








السعر مغرى
1800جنية
العنوان 33 شارع فواد المنصورة 
وبدون اى اوراق حكومية او سجل تجارى
استعلام يرجى لاتصال على رقم: 011512742
او

google_adsense2012@yahoo.com
Résuméabuiyad

عوز حساب فى جوجل ادسنس ادخل مش هتندم

بــــسم الله الرحمن الرحيم
adsense - 2012
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عوز تعمل حساب فى جوجل ادسنس ومش عارف وكل ما تقدم طالب يترفض او ما فيش رد من ادسنس
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اى حد عوز حساب فى جوجل ادسنس يكلمنى على الميل ويبعت
1-لاسم كامل
2-العنوان كامل
3-الرمز البريدى
4-عنوان الموقع الخاص لو فى موقع عندك لو مافيش مافيش مشكلة
طبعا هتقولو  اية الموقابل هو انى هعملك الحساب فى اقل من ساعة وتشوفة بعينك والموقابل بتاعى هو 100 جنية مصرى لا غير على كل حساب ولو عوز اكتر من حساب بى اكتر من اسم تحت امرك الموضع مش نصب وحيات بنتى
وقبل ما تدفع حاجة شوف بعينك  وانا تحت امركو فى اى سوال
السلام عليكم ورحمة الله وبركاته
Résuméabuiyad

الأحد، 12 أغسطس 2012

تصفح الانترنت واربح آلاف الدولارات بدون أي مجهود 2012



تصفح الانترنت واربح آلاف الدولارات بدون أي مجهود
برنامج يدفع لك أموال مقابل استعمالك للنت
فرصة كبرى .. اربح مرتب شهري ثابت بدون أي مجهود
في البداية كنت أعتقد أن هذا كلام غير حقيقي ومبالغ فيه
وتأكدت بعد أن وصلني الشيك بمبلغ 138 دولار نعم 138 دولار كما اقول
واليكم هذا الإعلان الذي أرسله لي صديقي وظننت في البداية أنه غير حقيقي ولكن تبين انه روعة :


هو برنامج صغير يتم تنزيله من الانترنت وتنصيبه على الكمبيوتر وهو عبارة عن شاشة صغيرة تظهر أعلى الشاشة وفوق المتصفح مباشرة لكي يعرض لك إعلانات من جميع شركات العالم أو بمعنى آخر دعاية وإعلان لتتعرف على منتجات تلك الشركات فربما تتعامل مع إحداها مثلا أو ربما تبلغ أصدقائك ومعارفك وجيرانك عن تلك الشركات - وستعطيك شركة الإعلانات نسبة من مصاريف الدعاية والإعلان وتكون تلك النسبة 1 دولار عن كل 1000 نقطة تقضيها على الإنترنت أي حوالي ساعة تقريبا لكل 1000 نقطة (1000 نقطة=1ساعة=1دولار) ويتم حساب النقط هذه بواسطة عداد داخل البرنامج الذي سيظهر أمامك أعلى الشاشة يشبه عداد الثواني إذا كان جهازك بطيئا فربما تقل النقاط بسبب هذا البطء وتكون ال 1000 نقطة في ساعة ونصف مثلا المهم إن ال 1000 نقطة = 1 دولار إنها حقيقة لا خيال ولن تدفع أي مصاريف إطلاقا سوى تنزيل البرنامج فقط انهم يريدون توصيل إعلاناتهم إليك أينما كنت وهذه اسهل طريقة لكي يصل إليك الإعلان بسهولة وسيدفعون لك المال لكي تشاهد إعلانات آلاف الشركات المتنافسة إنها شركات ضخمة وعالمية تدفع بالملايين بل بالمليارات على تلك الدعاية والإعلانات فلا تتردد الأمر لا يحتاج منك شئ سوى مشاهدة الإعلانات ويمكنك أيضا أن تتصفح مواقعك المفضلة وتتجول في الإنترنت كما تشاء فلن يعوقك هذا البرنامج إطلاقا واذا لم يعجبك فأحذفه لن تخسر شئ

س . هل أنا لازم أطــــلع على هذه الإعلانات ؟
ج . طبعاً لا , أنت فقط دعه شغالاً واشتغل على الانترنت مثل كل مرة ,المهم عرض الإعلانات فقط على شاشتك
طــــــــــــــريقة الاشـــــــــــــــتراك
اضغط هنا وإذا لم يعمل الرابط انسخه ثم الصقه في عنوان متصفحك ثم اضغط انثر في لوحة المفاتيح





ستظهر لك شاشة تطلب منك ملء معلوماتك الشخصية
طريقة التسجيل سهله( ويجب كتابه المعلومات الصحيحة لكي تستلم الشيك باسمك):
أتبــــــــــع هذا الشـــــــــــــــرح حتى لا تخــــــــــطأ
1- Login ( ضع اسم التسجيل )
2-) Password ضع الرقم السري وكرره في الخانة الثانية) Verify password
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4- ) Last nameضع اسم الأب واسم الجد او العائله)
5-) Street address ضع اسم الشارع )
6- City( ضع اسم المدينة )
7- Zip/Postal code ( ضع الرقم البريدي )
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9- Province ( هذا الخيار اختياري فاتركه كماهو )
10- Country( اختر دولتك من بين الدول الموجودة )
11- ) E-mail addressضع ايميلك وكرره في الخانة التالية ) Verify e-mail address
12- Year of birth( ضع سنه ميلادك )
13- ) Genderضع جنسك ذكر ام انثى )
14- ) Education ضع درجه تعليمك )
15- Annual household income ( اختر متوسط دخلك السنوي )
16- Industry ( اختر عملك أو صناعتك )
17- Industry اختر من الاختيارات(other)
18- ) Please tell us why you use Internet: (check all that apply)اختر أربع أو خمس خيارات )
19- Please tell us what do you search for or buy online and our partners will send you offers targeted to your interests*. (check all that apply) ( اختر أربع خيارات )
20-) Preferred check size اتركها كما هي )
21- Referred by( اتركها كما هي )
22- Member Agreement I have read and understand the ( ضع علامة صح هنا )
23- Submit Registration ( ثم اضغط هنا إذا انتهيت من تعبئه البيانات المطلوبة )

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بعدها سوف تظهر لك نافذة صغيره لتحميل البرنامج اضغط على ز ر Download
سوف يبدأ تحميل البرنامج(دقيقتين تقريبا) مع العلم انه يجب ان تكون متصلا بالنت في اثناء تثبيت البرنامج سوف تظهر لك نافذه الدخول ضع اسم المستخدم وكلمه المرور
وسيبدأ البرنامج في العمل خلال 15 ثانيه وعرض الاعلانات
نقاط يجب وضعها في الحسبان
- اشتراكك سريعاً يعني جمعك نقاط أكبر
- تعريف غيرك بالبرنامج ؛ يضاعف من مجموع نقاطك
- اسبق غيرك في نيل أكبر عدد ممكن من المشاركين
طريــــــــــــــــــقة الدفــــــــــــــــع
يتم الدفع عن طريق شيك يوصلك لحد عنوانك الذى سجلته عند ملء البيانات تقدر تطلب فلوسك من الشركه فى النصف الاول فقط من كل شهر يجب أن يكون رصيدك على الاقل 50 دولار لتطب قيمة الشيك ما أن يصل حسابك الى 50 دولار فأنه يظهر فى صفحتك زر الدفع ما أن تقوم بالضغط عليه حتى يتم تسجيل طلبك
ملاحظة : الشيك يصل فى خلال أسبوعين من تاريخ الطلب
لكن الأمر لا يقف هنا وإنما يمكن لكل مشترك أن يدعو آخرين للتسجيل عن طريق رابطه. وهنا ستقوم كل من هذه الشركات بدفع مبلغ إضافي
لهذا المشترك عن كل ساعة يقضيها من يسجلون باسمه اوعن طريق رابطه في الإنترنت. كذلك فإذا سجل شخص ثالث باسم الشخص الثاني اوعن طريق رابطه فإن
لشخص الأول أيضاً سيحصل على مبلغ من المال عن كل ساعة يقضيها الشخص الثالث في الإنترنت. وهذا الوضع يتسلسل لعدة
مستويات. فإذا قام الشخص الأول مثلا بالتسجيل في واحدة من هذه الشركات ثم دعا خمسة من أصدقائه للتسجيل برقمه ثم قام كل
واحد من هؤلاء الخمسة بدعوة خمسة آخرين للتسجيل بأرقامهم هم وقام كل واحد من الخمسة والعشرين الجدد بتسجيل خمسة
بأرقامهم وهكذا إلى أربعة أو خمسة مستويات، فإنه يمكن أن يحصل الشخص الأول على دخل شهري من تلك الشركة يصل إلى ما يزيد عن خمسة آلاف دولار
كم سأحصل شهريا باشتراكي في هذه الموقع؟
إذا سجلت بنفسك ولم تقم بدعوة أحد للتسجيل برقمك فإنك توقع أن تحصل على حوالي 300-400 دولار شهريا. ولكنك لو قمت
بدعوة آخرين وقام أؤلئك بدعوة غيرهم فإن هناك لديك فرصة للحصول على مئات بل ربما آلاف الدولارات من كل واحدة من هذه
الشركات. بعض المشتركين النشيطين في هذه الشركات يتوقعون أن يحصلوا على حوالي 5,000 إلى 20,000 دولار شهريا
كيف تقوم الشركات بحساب الوقت الذي يقضيه المشترك في الإنترنت؟
بعد أن تقوم بالتسجيل في هذه الشركات فإن الشركة سترسل لك رقماً خاصاًّ بك وكلمة سر. ويمكنك استخدام هذا الرقم وكلمة السر
للإطلاع على حسابك في الشركة (كم من الناس سجلوا برقمك وكم من الساعات قضيتها في الإنترنت ورصيدك الحالي). بعد هذا
عليك أن تقوم بتنزيل برنامج خاص من هذه الشركة وتحميله في جهاز الكمبيوتر الذي تستخدمه. ويقوم البرنامج بعد تحميله وتشغيله لأول مرة بسؤالك عن رقمك وكلمة السر الخاصة بك في هذه الشركة. بعد هذا يظهر البرنامج في شاشتك إما على شكل شريط يمكن تحريكه في أي مكان في الشاشة أو على شكل نافذة صغيرة تكون جزءاً من المتصفح الذي تستخدمه. كذلك فإن بعض الشركات لديها متصفح خاص بها. علىاية حال ، مهمة هذه البرامج شيئان. الأول ، حساب الوقت الذي ستقضيه في الإنترنت والثاني بث إعلانات ودعاية في النافذة الخاصة بهذه البرامج. ويمكنك أن توقف هذه البرامج متى شئت وتشغيلها متى شئت
لماذا تدفع هذه الشركات تلك المبالغ للمشتركين معها؟
البرنامج الخاص بكل شركة والذي عليك تنزيله وتحميله في جهازك يقوم ببث إعلانات ودعاية مادامت نافذة البرنامج ظاهرة على الشاشة. والدعاية التي تبث في هذه البرامج هي ليست للشركات التي تستخدم برامجها وإنما هي لشركات أخرى مقابل دفع تلك الشركات مبلغاً من المال للشركة صاحبة البرنامج. وفي الغالب تحتسب تكلفة تلك الدعاية بمعرفة عدد المستخدمين الذين سيشاهدون تلك الدعاية وكم مرة ستظهر تلك الدعاية في شاشاتهم. وتدفع تلك الشركات حوالي 20 إلى 50 دولارً عن كل ألف مرة تظهر فيها تلك الدعاية على شاشات المستخدمين. فمثلاً لو كان للشركة المالكة للبرنامج عشرة آلاف مشترك وبثت إليهم نفس الدعاية مرة واحدة فإنها قد تحصل من الشركة صاحبة الدعاية على حوالي 200 إلى 500 دولار. ولكن بعض هذه الشركات لديها الآن ما يزيد عن مليوني مشترك وهذا يعني أنها لو بثت إحدى تلك الدعايات إليهم جميعا مرة واحدة فقط ، فإنها ستحصل على حوالي 20 ألف إلى 50 ألف دولار. ولكي تقوم هذه الشركات بزيادة عدد المشتركين معها فإنها تجعلهم يحصلون على نسبة من تلك العائدات. بعض هذه الشركات تكافئ المشتركين معها بما يقارب من 75% إلى 90% من هذه العائدات
هل يعني هذا أنني سأقضي وقت الإنترنت في مشاهدة الدعايات التي تبثها هذه الشركات؟
إطلاقا. إن البرنامج الذي عليك تنزيله من هذه الشركات وتحميله على جهازك ليبث الدعاية تلقائيا وفي نفس الوقت يحسب الوقت الذي تقضيه في الإنترنت لغرض حساب ما ستدفعه الشركة لك. هذه يعني أنك لن تحتاج للتفاعل مع تلك الدعاية أو حتى مشاهدتها إلا إذا كانت شيئا أنت محتاج للتعرف عليه
هل يمكنني استخدام جهازي لأغراض أخرى ما دامت هذه البرامج على الشاشة؟
طبعا. فهذه البرامج لا تأخذ حيزا كبيرا من الشاشة ولا تمنعك من القيام بأعمالك المعتادة على الإنترنت بل أن بعضها سيتوقف عن حساب الوقت إذا لم تقوم بعمل على الإنترنت لعدة دقائق
كيف يتم دفع المبالغ من قبل هذه الشركات؟
عندما تسجل في تلك الشركات فستطلب منك عنوانك البريدي . وعندما يصل رصيدك في كل واحدة من هذه الشركات الى 20 دولارا أو أكثر في الشهر الواحد فإن الشركات ستقوم بإرسال شيك باسمك إلى العنوان الذي زودتها به. أما إذا كان رصيدك أقل من 20 دولار بهذه الطريقة انت تضيف دخل شهري دون عمل يذكر سواء مشاهدة إعلان
نتمنى لك ربـــــــحاً طيــــــــــــب

Résuméabuiyad

السبت، 11 أغسطس 2012

كرتون توم وجيري بالعربية طويل في الفخ - 2012

كرتون توم وجيري بالعربية - طويل في الفخ - 2012














تحياتى عبقرينو
Résuméabuiyad

كرتون مزرعة المشاغبين 2012

كرتون مزرعة المشاغبين















تحياتى عبقرينو

Résuméabuiyad

كرتون طرزان عربي كامل 2012

كرتون طرزان عربي كامل









تحياتى عبقرينو
Résuméabuiyad

كرتون سندريلا مدبلج بالعربى كامل 2012

كرتون سندريلا مدبلج بالعربى كامل





















تحياتى عبقرينو

Résuméabuiyad

رسوم متحركة لتعليم اللغة العربية للأطفال 2012


رسوم متحركة لتعليم اللغة العربية للأطفال   






عبقرينو

Résuméabuiyad

تعليم الأحرف الفرنسية للأطفال

تعليم الأحرف الفرنسية للأطفال 





تحياتى عبقرينو

Résuméabuiyad

تحدث اللغة الفرنسية للمبتدئين - قاموس تعليمي مصور 2012


تحدث اللغة الفرنسية للمبتدئين - قاموس تعليمي مصور   







تانى



تحياتى عبقرينو


Résuméabuiyad

تعليم اللغة الفرنسية شرح قواعد الاسماء والحروف 2012

تعليم اللغة الفرنسية شرح قواعد الاسماء والحروف 2012







تحياتى عبقرينو



Résuméabuiyad

Declaration of employment 2012


Website owned by several investors, looking for staff to work in the field of technical analysis and fundamental of the Forex market to work from home.
Function-oriented Egyptians experienced in the forex market and those who have mastered dealing with financial markets to work in the dissemination of technical and fundamental analysis on the pages of the website of the company and contribute to the registration of new members of the site.
Will be a simple job with a salary with incentives for those who provide an excellent effort and work nicely.
Please send your CV with samples of your analysis of the e-mail to the following:
smart.fx.systems @ gmail.com

Résuméabuiyad

الثلاثاء، 7 أغسطس 2012

Gold and the Euro? I thought it was Gold and the Dollar?!

Gold and the Euro? I thought it was Gold and the Dollar?!

Let me preface this post, by noting that I try to avoid writing about gold, since there are some many other excellent analysts out there writing about the subject. But when there is a such a strong overlap between gold and forex markets, well, I just can’t resist!
Recently, gold prices have collapsed at virtually the same rate as the Euro, with the result being a near-record high short-term correlation between EUR/USD and gold prices. This has caused no shortage of confusion among gold-watchers, which are accustomed to seeing the strongest (inverse) correlation with the US Dollar. This change is causing everyone to rethink some classically held assumptions about gold prices.Gold versus the EUR-USD
The foremost of which is that gold is chiefly a hedge against the Dollar, which is a symbol for inflation and erosion of value. [In fact, analysts argue that gold has little real purpose (besides a handful of trivial practical uses, such as jewelry), especially since holders of gold don't receive interest, there is little reason to own it other than as a store of value].  Thus, as the Dollar has declined over the last five years, gold has soared. Investors who are nervous about perennial budget deficits in the US and the skyrocketing national debt, have turned to Gold because of the belief  it will continue to hold its value even (or especially) if the US government is forced to devalue its debt by devaluing the Dollar. While this tenet underlies the gold/Dollar inverse relationship, the long and short of it is that investors typically buy gold when the Dollar falls, and vice versa. Thus, when the credit crisis struck and the Dollar rallied, gold prices fell, despite the fact that the US was now more likely to default on its debt.
In the last month, however, the Euro has taken center stage in dictating the price of gold. This is most likely because of the sovereign debt problems of certain EU countries. A not insignificant number of which well exceed the budget (not to exceed 3% of GDP per year) and debt (not to exceed 60% of GDP) limitations imposed on them by their membership in the EU. Recent credit rating downgrades have underscored an increasing likelihood of default, which has been duly noted both by the forex and gold markets. As the Euro has dropped (quite dramatically in fact), so has gold.
According to the current paradigm, this is not wholly unsurprising, since the Euro’s fall has naturally been mirrored by a rise in the Dollar. Thus, if you continue to look at gold prices in terms of the Dollar, it seems naturally that a rising Dollar is being accompanied by falling gold. On the other hand, the fact that the Dollar is suddenly rising has little to do with a change in US fundamentals, and instead reflects the fact that in forex, it’s impossible to short all currencies simultaneously, even if sometimes fundamentals would justify such an approach.
In other words, that certain EU member states are more likely to default on their respective debt obligations has limited bearing on whether the US will also default. [If anything, it increases the likelihood, since a default in the EU would likely send sovereign borrowing costs higher around the world, straining the ability of the US to continue borrowing]. By extension, the current drop in the price of gold is fundamentally irrational, especially when viewed relative to currency markets.  To borrow a hackneyed expression, perhaps it’s time for a paradigm shift.

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Gold Rises as “Alternative Currency”

Gold Rises as “Alternative Currency”

Everything in forex is relative, right? Actually, it turns out this adage is wrong, as there is now a way you can short the entire forex market! I’m not talking about some innovative new financial product that you’ve never heard of, but rather something that everyone already knows about: Gold.
Before you accuse me of sounding like an infomercial, consider that while gold has been an investable commodity for quite some time, its trading pattern has changed recently, especially in the context of forex. Before, the link between gold and forexwas inverse and clear: “When the greenback strengthens…this tends to pressure gold since it reduces the need to buy as a hedge against a soft dollar. Also, a strengthening dollar makes commodities generally more expensive in other currencies.” In other words, a rising Dollar is usually accompanied by falling gold prices, and vice versa.
Over the course of 2010, this relationship has steadily grown weaker and weaker, and in the last month, it has almost completely broken down. To understand the rationale for such a change, one needs not to look any further than the sovereign debt crisis currently facing Greece and indirectly, the Eurozone. This crisis has affected the way that investors think about gold; while previously it was primarily viewed as an inflation hedge, now it is seen as a hedge against fiscal/financial crisis. In this regard, it has assumed the characteristics of a “safe haven” currency, much like the US Dollar.
“Gold is going to move higher regardless of what happens in the currency market, as long as there are fears of problems in Europe. People are starting to have more skepticism to a lot of these sovereign entities,” explained one analyst. At the moment, that means that the inverse correlation between the Dollar and Gold (Dollar Up = Gold Down) appears to have reversed itself, such that a rising Dollar is also accompanied by rising gold. In this case, there may be correlation (since investors are buying both gold AND the Dollar as safe haven vehicles) but there is no causationbetween the two as there was before.
At the moment, the correct interpretation is that anything is preferable to the Euro (whose sovereign debt problems are the most pressing). Thus, gold prices are rising at basically the same rate as the Euro as falling, and gold prices in local currency (EUR, CHF, GBP) terms are already at record levels.Euro Versus Gold - 2010As for the future, however, many are betting that gold will distance itself from the Dollar as well, if/when the fiscal “problems” of the US escalate to the level of a Greek-style crisis. At this point, Gold will start to trade as an alternative to the entire forex market! In fact, gold contracts denominated in US Dollars have also been rising, which means that investors already perceive it as more than just an alternative to the Euro. (If this was the case, one would expect gold to appreciate in terms of Euros, but to remain constant or even fall when priced in Dollars. This clearly hasn’t happened).
Admittedly, gold is outside of my expertise, so I’ll refrain from personally making any predictions. According to Deutsche Bank, “If the correlation re-establishes itself before July, either the dollar must continue to decline or investment into bullion-backed funds must pick up in order to avoid erosion in gold prices.”
Regardless of what happens, my intention here is simply to point out the emergence of this trend, for its own sake. While it doesn’t have any serious implications about the internal dynamics of forex markets, it most certainly is important insofar as it reflects what investors (forex and otherwise) are generally thinking about. In this case, it signals that concern over the ongoing sovereign debt crisis isn’t going to abate anytime soon.

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Currency War Devalues all Currencies…Except for Gold

Currency War Devalues all Currencies…Except for Gold

Have you ever heard currency cheerleaders rave about how unique forex is because there is never a bear market? Since all currencies trade relative to each other (when one falls, another must necessarily rise), it couldn’t be possible for the entire market to drop at once, as happens with other financial markets. The ongoing currency warmight be turning this logic on its head, as currencies embark on a collective downward spiral. Profiting in this kind of market might involve exiting it altogether, and turning to Gold.
Gold Versus Global Currencies 2010For those of you who haven’t been following this story, a handful of the world’s largest Central Banks are now battling with each to see who can devalue their currency the fastest. [Of course, this war is being couched in euphemistic terms, but make no mistake: it is indeed a form of battle]. The principal participants are emerging market economies, which worry about the impact of rising currencies on their export sectors. However, industrialized countries have also intervened directly (namely Japan) and indirectly (US, UK).
Among the major currencies, there are only a few that continue to sit on the side-lines, including the Euro (to a certain extent), Canadian Dollar, and Australian Dollar. For as long as the currency war continues, these currencies and the handful of emerging market currencies that have forsworn intervention will be the winners (at least from the point of view of speculators that deliberately bet on them).
Then there are those that believe all currencies will suffer, and that even the currencies that are still rising are actually depreciating in real terms (due to inflation). Those who harbor such beliefs will often try to short the entire currency market, usually by betting on commodities or heavy metals, of which Gold is probably the most prominent.
The price of Gold has risen more than 20% this year (in USD terms). Its backers claim that it is the ultimate store of value (where this derives from is unclear), and defend its lack of utility and inability to accrue interest by arguing that its appreciation is more than enough of a reason to own it. When you look at the performance of gold over the last five years, you begin to wonder if maybe they have a point.Gold Prices 10 Year Chart 2000-2010
Interest in Gold as an investment has surged in the last couple years (and especially the last few months), as the currency wars have heated up and the Federal Reserve Bank contemplates an expansion of its Quantitative Easing program (dubbed” QE2″). On the one hand, the notion that the only way to defend against real currency devaluation is to own “alternative” currencies is well-founded. On the other hand, regardless of the fact that the Fed has already minted $2 Trillion in cash and that the US national debt is expanding by $1 Trillion per year, inflation in the US is low. In fact, it’s at a 50-year low, and at an annualized .9%, it’s practically non-existent. You would think that with Gold’s unending appreciation, we would be in the midst of hyperinflation, but that’s simply not the case.
In the short-term, then, there’s really not a strong fundamental basis for investing in gold. That’s not to say that it won’t continue to appreciate and that investors will continue to buy into it merely to benefit from what has become self-fulfilling appreciation. From where I’m sitting, though, there’s really no foundation for this appreciation. Consider, for example, that gold investors still have to convert their gold back into paper currency in order for it to to be “used;” otherwise, it offers no benefit to the owner except that it looks pretty (though most investors wouldn’t know, since they buy gold indirectly). Not to mention that if/when the Dollar stops depreciating, there really isn’t really a justification to buy gold as a short-term store of value.
Over the long-term, the picture is certainly more nuanced. I’m not going to explore the viability of fiat currencies here, but suffice it to say that, “Positioning for significantly higher gold prices over the long run demands a very bold strategic bet: that the global monetary system as we know it will completely break down and be replaced with a gold standard.” Regardless of the merits of this point of view, those that invest in Gold should at least understand that this is really the only justifiable reason to hold it. Those who are buying it because of the ongoing currency war will be disappointed.

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Australian Dollar Rises Despite Unwinding of Carry Trade

Australian Dollar Rises Despite Unwinding of Carry Trade

When two weeks ago the Royal Bank of Australia (RBA) cut interest rates, one would have expected the Australian Dollar to suffer proportionately. Instead, the currency continued its steady upward rise, and touched a six-month high, before falling back slightly. One surprised analyst lamented, “These types of inconsistencies can make trading forex difficult or down right frustrating at times.”
The interest rate cut marked the sixth since September, since which point the RBA has trimmed its benchmark lending rate by 425 basis points, leaving it at 3%. [See chart below courtesy of "The Fundamental Analyst."] Traders have reacted to the successive declines in yield and simultaneous pickup in risk aversion by unwinding carry trades, many of which had been long the Australian Dollar. The massive sell-off that ensued left the Aussie a long way below the level of parity with the USD, which only last year many analysts had viewed as inevitable.rba-cash-rate-apr09The most recent rate cut, in contrast, was greeted positively by traders, perhaps because they were expecting a larger (50 basis point) rate cut, but more likely because their priorities had changed. A pickup in risk aversion in recent weeks has definitely reinvigorated interest in comparatively risky currencies such as the Australian Dollar. Overall, the markets remain risk-averse, and investors are increasingly making bets in accordance with economic fundamentals, rather than yield levels. ” ‘The focus will remain on the global backdrop…Risk appetite is still fragile and the market is increasingly realizing that the recent recovery was excessive.’ ”
In the case of the Australian Dollar, traders were heartened by the RBA’s decision to lower interest rates to a 49-year low since it reflected the Bank’s commitment to dealing with the economic crisis. But at this point, the Australian economy is still in poor shape. “Prime Minister Kevin Rudd said yesterday for the first time that arecession in Australia is inevitable amid a slump in global growth that is eroding demand for natural resources from the world’s biggest shipper of coal and iron ore.”
Meanwhile, “The global economic downturn has pushed Australia’s economy into itsfirst recession since 1991, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glen Stevens said.” According to the minutes from the RBA’s last meeting, “Conditions in the labor market continued to soften” and “Further falls in employment and rises in unemployment were expected.” These observations should be viewed in the context of a 5.7% unemployment rate.
The near-term prognosis for the Australian economy remains quite poor, regardless of whether a recovery materializes in 2010, as forecast by economists. Accordingly, analysts expect the RBA to lower its benchmark interest rate further, probably to 2.25% or 2.5%; there is a “bias toward further modest rate cuts, although we continue to think that the RBA may well pause for a few months to assess the impact of the current round of fiscal stimulus,” offered one forecaster.
Given the lull in market activity, some commentators have turned to technical analysis. “Westpac Currency strategist Robert Rennie said their own risk measurement models are clearly flagging a bumpy period ahead for high yielding currencies. ‘Our proprietary models are…clearly telling us to watch risk sentiment and data much more closely than we have over the past six weeks.’ ” In short, traders should not become complacent as result of the Aussie’s recent rally, and should continue to monitor economic data for signs of progress and/or hiccups on the road to recovery.australian-dollar-rises

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Australian, New Zealand Currencies Benefit from Risk Aversion

Australian, New Zealand Currencies Benefit from Risk Aversion

Against each other, the New Zealand Kiwi and Australian Dollar have traded in a pretty tight range for the last year (except for a “blip” in the fall of 2008). This makes sense, as both currencies rise and fall in accordance with exports and interest rates.nzd-and-aud-trade-in-tight-range
Against other currencies, meanwhile, both have torn upwards in the last couple months. Despite steep interest rate cuts, both currencies have maintained their interest rate advantages against other industrialized currencies. This has not gone unnoticed, and the return of the carry trade has been kind. “The current improvement in sentiment is providing an underpinning of support and while that remains the case – and that may be until midyear – the New Zealand dollar is going to remain well-supported,” said one economist.
The correlation between the New Zealand Kiwi, specifically, with the US stock market has become remarkably cut-and-dried of late, which you can see from the chart below. For carry traders, therefore, it probably makes more sense to follow stock market commentary than to track New Zealand economic data. The same economist, for example, warned “that the equities rally, which has seen the broad U.S. Standard & Poor’s 500 index climb 36% from its March low after rising another 3.4% Monday to its highest since Jan. 8, may be dissipating.”us-equities-and-nzd-usd
Besides, given the deteriorating economics in both countries, lower interest rates are probably inevitable: “We think this case for further cuts will be made in the second half of this year…we think it will be very difficult, no matter what the global economy is doing, for the RBA to ignore rapidly rising unemployment,” offered one analyst who predicted that rates would be cut to a “trough of 2%.” In such a scenario, the interest rate spread would still remain healthy, but perhaps not enough to offset the additional risk.

Australian home prices are falling at a rapid clip, the labor market is sagging. In New Zealand, meanwhile, a decline in sentiment and consumer spending has corresponded with a 1% contraction in GDP in the quarter ended March 31. Tourism is down, although net exports are increasing. The current account deficit continues to expand, but this is mostly a product of an investment balance – perhaps related to the carry trade.new-zealand-2009-current-account-balanceFor now, forex traders remain optimistic, albeit slightly less so than before: “The difference in the number of wagers by hedge funds and other large speculators on an advance in the Australian dollar compared with those on a drop — so-called net longs— was 16,692 on April 28, compared with net longs of 17,250 a week earlier.

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Outlook is Positive for Australia, but Less so for Australian Dollar

Outlook is Positive for Australia, but Less so for Australian Dollar

The economic outlook continues to improve for Australia. Most recently, both the government and the Central Bank released five-year growth forecasts, both of which show a modest recovery in 2010. “By 2011-12, the commodity-rich economy will again be firing on all cylinders with growth of 4.5%, well above the long-term growth rate of around 3%.”
This positive development coincided with the release of similarly upbeat economic data: “Retail sales surged 2.2 percent in March from the previous month, four times as much as economists forecast. Home-loan approvals jumped 4.9 percent, the sixth consecutive gain.” Meanwhile, unemployment shrank for the first time in months, and consumer confidence is once again rising. While the economy is forecast to shrink by .75% in the current fiscal year, this compares favorably with other industrialized countries.
The sudden turnaround can be attributed to a couple factors. First of all, the pickup in China’s economy is stimulating demand for natural resources, which had been slack for the last year. If not for simultaneously falling commodity prices, Australia might have even achieved positive economic growth for the year.
The government’s stimulus plan and spending initiatives have also played a role, although the extent cannot be measured accurately for a few months. “The government claims that measures in its budget will inject a further A$8.8 billion into the economy in 2009-10, adding to around A$50 billion in fiscal measures already announced since October 2008.”
The outlook for the Australian Dollar, meanwhile, is not so rosy. The 425 basis points in cumulative rate cuts that the Royal Bank of Australia (RBA) effected over the last year have lowered the interest rate differential with other industrialized countries. While the RBA has indicated that it will pause before cutting rates further, interest rate futures reflect the expectation that rates will be lower twelve months from now. “Economists say the RBA is open to cutting interest rates again if consumer and business confidence appear threatened, but for now it is content to let monetary and fiscal stimulus measures take hold.”
To be sure, the uptick in risk tolerance has been good for the Australian Dollar, igniting a 25% rise since March. The currency now stands at a 7-month high against the US Dollar. But the increasingly modest differential is now causing some analysts to question whether it is a reasonable risk to take, especially against the backdrop of volatility and a high correlation with global stock prices. “What’s the point of picking up a 3 percent interest-rate differential by being long Aussie and short Japan in a world where the exchange rate can move by that much in two days?” Asks One analyst rhetorically.
This same analyst is actually recommending investors to use the Australian Dollar as a funding currency, and go long on higher-yielding currencies, such as the Brazilian Real. This particular trade would have netted a respectable 5.9% return in 2009. How quickly the roles have reversed!aud-usd-1-year

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Reserve Bank of Australia Could be the First to Hike Rates

Reserve Bank of Australia Could be the First to Hike Rates

Based on the chart below, which plots the Australian Dollar against the New Zealand Dollar over the last two years, one might be tempted to conclude that the two currencies are identical for all intents and purposes. Rather than suffer the inconvenience of separately analyzing the Australian Dollar, why not just readyesterday’s post on the New Zealand Dollar, and leave it at that?
aud-nzdBut this chart belies the fact that while the two currencies, have risen and fallen (in near lockstep) in sync with the ebb and flow of risk aversion, this could soon change. While the near-term prospects for the New Zealand economy are dubious, sentiment towards the Australian economy is more consistently optimistic.  “Central bank Governor Glenn Stevens said the nation’s economic downturn may not be ‘one of the more serious’ of the post-World War II era.” In addition, “Stevens said the nation’s economy may rebound faster than the central bank had predicted six months ago onimproving confidence among consumers and businesses alike.” The latest projectionsare for a fall in .5% contraction in GDP in 2009 followed by a 1% rise in 2010.
Meanwhile, government spending is surging: “The Australian government forecast its largest budget deficit on record of A$57.6 billion for fiscal year 2009-10, or 4.9% of GDP.” Combined with the steady recovery in commodity prices and the resumption of residential construction, this could soon trickle down through the Australian economy in the form of inflation. It’s no wonder, then, that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could begin tightening interest rates as early as December, in order to mitigate against the possibility of inflation in 2011 and 2012.australia-cpi-inflation
In fact, Governor Glen Stevens has been raising eyebrows with his unequivocal comments about raising rates. “I’ve never seen written down … I’ve never heard in discussion in the institution, some rule of thumb that says we wait until unemployment’s peaked before we lift the cash rate…I think it depends what else is happening, and also depends how low you went. We eased very aggressively,” he said recently. As a result, traders are betting that rates will be 1.13% higher one year from now than they are today.
This development should be of especial interest to forex traders. Australian interest rates are already the highest in the industrialized world. When you consider “the market’s expectations that the RBA is likely to be the G-10 central bank which is likely to hike first,” it goes a long way towards explaining the 18% rise in the Aussie that has taken place in 2009 alone. Compare a hypothetical 4% RBA benchmark rate to the .1% in Japan and ~0% in the US, and carry traders will start to salivate.

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Canadian Dollar Slated to Outperform Other Commodity Currencies

Canadian Dollar Slated to Outperform Other Commodity Currencies

In the same vein as Monday’s and Tuesday’s posts (covering the New Zealand Dollar and Australian Dollar, respectively), I’d like to use today’s post to look at another commodity currency – the Canadian Dollar. The Loonie, it turns out, has also benefited from the a recovery in risk appetite and concomitant boom in commodity prices; it has appreciated by 7% against the USD in the last month alone, en route to a ten-month high. “All in all, with almost everything going its way these days (besides the crummy weather and the impact on tourism), a return trip to parity – last visited nearly one year ago – doesn’t seem far fetched,” chimes one optimistic analyst.
cad-usd
Like Australia and New Zealand, Canada’s economic fate is tied closely to commodity prices. Simply, as oil and other natural resources have inched closer to last year’s record highs, the Loonie has rebounded proportionately. “Raw materials account formore than 50 percent of Canada’s export revenue. Crude is the nation’s largest export.” Of course, this relationship works both ways. Any indication that the global economic recovery is stalling, and commodities prices would likely tumble, bringing commodity currencies down likewise.
Unlike the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar, the Loonie has never really held much appeal as a carry trade currency. Even at their peak, Canadian interest rates were mediocre, from the standpoint of yield. The current rate is a measly .25%, compared to 2.5% in New Zealand and 3% in Australia. Moreover, while Australia may begin tightening as soon as the fall, “The Bank of Canada committed to keep its key policy rate at the lowest possible level until the spring of 2010,” after voting to hold rates at yesterday’s rate setting meeting. This interest differential could explain why the Aussie has outpaced the Loonie of late.cad-aud
Another key difference – and potential explanation for the currencies’ recent divergence – is that Australia is considered part of the Asian economic zone, while Canada’s economic fortunes are closely aligned with those of its main trading partner, the US. China, alone, is helping to lift Australia out of recession. The US, meanwhile, is still struggling to find its feet. Hence, it is projected that Canadian GDP will contract by 2.3% in 2009, while Australian GDP may fall by a modest .5%. “When things look bad, you are more likely to sell Canada than the Australian dollar because its economy is moderated by Asian growth,” explains one analyst.
Going forward, this regional differentiation could actually work to the advantage of Canada, which is forecast to grow by an impressive 3% in 2010, compared to 1% growth in Australia. Accordingly, one analyst advises that “Investors should sell Australia’s dollar against Canada’s as a ‘relative commodity play’ because an attempt by China to reign in bank lending on concern it may be creating asset-price bubbles could slow Asian growth…’The Canadian dollar should outperform because it is much more closely linked to a recovery in the U.S.

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